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Trade Scenarios: Packers look to make moves in 2018 NFL Draft

Green Bay has 11 remaining selections in the 2018 NFL Draft, which means: trades. Probably multiple trades. But the question is: how much flexibility do they have?

Here's a few scenarios, but you can create your own as well. You can use the NFL Draft Value Chart here to guide your trades.

Leaving side the trio of seventh-round draft picks (worth one point apiece), here are values of the Green Bay Packers' remaining picks in rounds 2-7:

Round 2 (45th overall) = 450

Round 4 (101st overall) = 96

Round 4 (133rd overall) = 39

Round 5 (138th overall) = 36.5

Round 5 (147th overall) = 32.2

Round 5 (172nd overall) = 22.2

Round 5 (174th overall) = 21.4

Round 6 (207th overall) = 8.2

Let's make a deal!

Scenario 1: What's the highest pick the Packers could acquire by packaging all seven of their picks in rounds four through six?

It's not a plausible scenario; the Packers need depth and trading seven picks for one would be silly. But let's call this the ceiling for picks in this NFL Draft. The total value of their seven picks in this range is 255.5, which equates to the third pick in the third round (67th overall, Indianapolis). So, if you're looking for the absolute high end of what they could do, upper third round is the limit.

Scenario 2: If the Packers insist on keeping the first pick of the fourth round, and package all of their fifth- and sixth-round picks as well as #133 overall, where do they go?

So all we're doing is subtracting the 101st overall pick from this equation, which means this package is worth 159.5 points. That's good enough for 86th overall (Kansas City), but leaves the Packers with no picks from 101 until 232. So this one isn't very realistic either.

Scenario 3: Let's leave the Packers with one pick in each of the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds. We'll try one trade with the 101st overall pick and one with the 133rd overall pick, and try to balance it so that the Packers have a decent pick spot that roughly equates to where they pick in the 4th and 5th round.

Because the Packers have two high and two low picks in the 5th round, we're going to break up Scenario 3 into two parts.

3-A: #101, #138, #147, #172 (leaves #133, #174) ... This equals 186.2, which puts them around #81 overall (Dallas). Seems like a steep price to pay (a fourth and three fifths) to move up to the middle of the third orund.

3-B: #133, #138, #172, #174 (leaves #101, #147) ... This equals 176.1, which is a couple of picks later at #83 overall (Baltimore). This package is all compensatory picks and the Browns' picks at the top of the fifth round, but again, it's a big price for a mid-third round pick.

So, these scenarios are probably not likely either.

Scenario 4: The Packers make a three-for-one deal, which reduces their remaining pick total from 11 to nine, involving only one fourth- and two fifth-round picks.

Again, let's do this in two parts. Let's assume the Packers want to keep picks in each round. So one fourth and two fifths. We'll do the highest picks and the lowest picks in each of the rounds to get a ceiling and basement for this more realistic approach to this example.

4-A: #101, #138, #147 ... the highest the Packers go with three of their picks would be 164.7, or 85th overall (Carolina). This is a pretty good jump for a late third-round pick, but probably one of the more likely scenarios here. The Packers could flex up to the 83rd (Baltimore) by tossing in their sixth-round pick.

4-B: #133, #172, #174 ... the floor of trading a 4th and two 5th-round picks is equal to 82.6, which is 106th overall (Denver) ... that's the fourth round. So, the Packers could send all of their compensatory picks from the fourth and fifth rounds to get another high fourth-round draft choice, and if they included a sixth or moved around their fifth-rounders a bit, could easily end up with back-to-back picks at the top of the fourth round, if they really liked two players heading into Day 3. Fun scenario!

Scenario 5: What if someone they really want isn't going to make it to them in the second round at #45?

Green Bay has a TON of flexibility in this spot. They can move up as far as they want in the second, but even moving up ten spots to #35 overall (Cleveland) would only cost them a fourth-round pick. A fifth-round pick would move them up two or three spots. Their late fourth-round pick could get them up four spots. Even their sixth-round pick would move them up one spot if they really wanted to do it.

Scenario 6: Moving down! Can the Packers get a third-round pick by moving down in the second round, while keeping a second-round pick?

There's several scenarios that this could work out with if the Packers are determined to stay in the second round. They'd need a team below them in the second round with a corresponding third-round pick value to do it. With a second-round pick value of 450, this is a little trickier, considering the last pick of the third round is worth 100 points.

-San Francisco holds #59 (310), #70 (240), #74 (220), and #95 (120), the last of which they acquired from New England today in the Trent Brown trade. Easy math: if the Packers traded down to #59, that's a 140-point difference in point value. That means they'd more than have enough to acquire #95, the pick the 49ers just acquired from New England, and possibly another pick later in the draft, like San Francisco's 6th-round pick at #184 (17.4 points). If Green Bay wanted to own the seventh round, they could ask for #223 as well to get the numbers exactly matched. So, it would be #45 (450) for #59 (310), #95 (120), #184 (17.4), and optionally #223 (2). Would the 49ers, with several positions to fill, agree to that? Probably not, but it's one path the Packers could take in terms of pick values.

-Carolina holds #55 (350), #85 (165) and #88 (150). That is 500 to 515 points, 50 to 65 more than the Packers have for their second-round pick. However, the Packers could package two of their later-round picks (two fifths? A fourth and their sixth?) to move down ten selections in the second round, get back into the third round, and put only a small dent in their Day 3 stockpile. This is an interesting scenario!

-Kansas City holds #54 (360), #78 (200), and #86 (160). Let's leave #78 aside for a moment. 520 points for #54 and #86 is very doable, similar to the package they could offer Carolina. A 2nd, 4th (#133) and one of their late 5ths would match up on the trade value chart.

-Tennessee holds #57 (330) and #89 (145). The Packers would have to make up 25 points on the trade value chart... which is roughly one of their compensatory 5th-round picks. Plausible!

-Atlanta has #58 (320) and #90 (140). The Packers' sixth-round pick (8.2) would match the draft value chart pretty well in this case.

-Pittsburgh is at #60 (300), and also has #75 (315) and #92 (132). Green Bay could easily achieve on the trade value chart for #60 and #92, with room to acquire another late-round pick. Trying for #60 and #75 is a tougher deal, since the Packers would have to give up, along with the 2nd, likely both fourth-round picks and perhaps two of their fifth-round picks. That's a big batch of picks for only a little bit of maneuvering.

-Jacksonville is at #61 (292) and #93 (128). That's 420 points, and the Packers could ask for a pick next year to help satisfy the move as well (30 points is roughly a fifth-round pick, and the Packers have lots of those while Jacksonville has none).

-Minnesota has #62 (284) and #94 (124). In addition to the division rivalry, this starts to go the other way for the Packers. Minnesota doesn't have a fourth-round pick to get this to trade value, and we're on the other side of consolidating picks for moves up the board. Plus, the Packers are picking only seven spots later.

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